Detailed below is an update on Brazil’s safrinha corn crop, a final note on harvest in South America, as well as stories and trends impacting growers in the U.S. as they enter the planting season.
Projected Safrinha corn yields in Brazil projections dip after a bout of dry weather
Brazil has been dry and hot over the past month. While this has not impacted soybeans or the first corn crop, since both are over 95% harvested, this hot spell has affected the safrinha crop, particularly areas which planted late, which were in a critical grain filling period. Predicted yield is down ~5% from April.
Corn and soybean takeaways across South America
Combined, yields for Brazilian and Argentinian corn are down 2% from April’s forecast, but up 16% from the end of 2018. Argentinian yield projects at 130 bushels per acre, while Brazilian yield is at 88 bushels per acre. Overall, forecasts for South American corn production are at 5.6B bushels, up 28% from last year.
Indigo’s South American soy forecast shows virtually no net change from last month. Argentinian yield project slightly up to 51 bushels per acre, while Brazilian soy is weakly holding at 46 bushels per acre. Overall, forecasts for South American soy production are at 5.8B bushels, up only 2% from last year.
Wet weather in the United States continues to limit planting
Rain and wet conditions continue to delay corn planting by American farmers, particularly the heart of the Corn Belt. Corn planting should be halfway done by this week in May; we are instead just over 20% planted. As corn planting continues to be delayed, farmers will increasingly look to plant soybeans in its place.
More than $100m in at-risk grain stored on Midwest farms
More than one million acres of Midwest farmland were impacted by the unprecedented flooding in March. Located in the affected area were thousands of on-farm storage bins, many containing grain that has been damaged or lost. The United States Department of Agriculture, however, will not estimate, or collect data on the volume of grain lost. Lance Honig, the crops branch chief of the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, told Reuters that surveying the amount of grain lost to flooding by conventional means “would be a challenge.”
By using Atlas, Indigo has identified 3,954 at-risk bins across six states: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. This translates to 21.8 - 37.6 million bushels of impacted corn and soybeans, an estimated $102 to $176 million in at risk grain.
Where does our analysis come from?
Indigo’s Atlas platform monitors the world’s food supply. Combining remote sensing satellite imagery and machine learning, we monitor the progress of key crops around the world – where they are growing and how they are performing. An early read on supply helps reduce risk throughout the entire agricultural value chain. Indigo’s GeoInnovation team brings agricultural insights to bear for the growers we partner with, elevating their opportunities to be profitable through more nuanced decision-making.
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