October 2020 U.S. Production Forecast

  • Indigo is currently forecasting U.S. corn yield at 178.5 bushels per acre for corn and 49.7 bushels per acre for soybeans, 0.1% above and 4.2% below the USDA’s October WASDE report.
  • Included is a state-by-state analysis of the 205M bushel corn stock revision released by the USDA on September 30th for June 1st stocks.

October 5, 2020. Indigo’s yield forecast came down 1.1 bushels per acre (bu/ac) for corn while rising 0.2 bu/ac for soybeans over the past month. This means our end-of-season yield estimates are at a record high for corn, and third best for beans in the past decade. Harvest is in full swing with dry and warm conditions throughout the Corn Belt, with soybeans outpacing and corn only slightly behind the USDA five-year average.

Stocks have emerged as the biggest corn market story heading into the end of the season. Last week, the USDA reported corn stocks for the beginning of the month at 1.995B bushels. This is 255M bushels below expectations, 80% of which was associated with the corn stocks revision from June 1st. This is the largest revision to a previous stocks report in the last decade. The specific cause of the revision is unclear, but may be linked to smaller corn production. 

Find a state-by-state breakdown within our latest report:

Explore the Data

For a deeper analysis of the report, tune in to the below webinar, hosted by the Head of GeoInnovation, David Potere, Sr. Director of Data Science, Nick Malizia, and lead analyst for Atlas Insights, Peter Schmidt.


Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and Indigo Ag. Inc. (“Indigo”) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Indigo. It doesn’t constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Indigo, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own due diligence and receive their own professional advice. Price and value of the commodity referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving commodity derivatives involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone. The report is based on information from different sources, some proprietary and some public. Opinions expressed are Indigo’s current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Readers of this report are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading may make trading decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities for compensation or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Indigo’s prior written consent.