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May 2020 Production Forecast

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May 12, 2020. A strong, but-not-record production season is ending across South America with an increase in Indigo’s estimate for Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest while the Argentine corn and both soybean crops remain below market consensus.

Indigo’s final forecast for the 2019/2020 growing year, Indigo forecasts 144 MMT for corn and 160 MMT of total soybean production. The corn forecast is up 8 MMT from last month’s forecast, driven by a 9 MMT increase in Brazilian corn; the soybean forecast is down 1 MMT from a lower Argentine estimate. 

Indigo’s corn yield predictions are 17% lower than the USDA’s estimate for Argentina and 2% higher than CONAB’s estimate for Brazil. For soybeans, Indigo’s forecast is 13% lower than the FAS estimate for Argentina and 6% lower than CONAB for Brazil. 

Second season corn sees second wind in Brazil. Recovering from a late plant with favorable weather conditions, Brazil’s safrinha crop saw a marked increase of 0.69 metric tons per hectare (MT/Ha) at the national level, led by Mato Grosso’s 1.09 MT/Ha improvement. Safrinha accounts for 76% of Brazil’s corn area. Poor early-season vegetation indices seem to be more about a late crop rather than a bad one.

How does Indigo generate forecasts? Atlas combines remote sensing, ground equipment, historical, and weather data to track the dynamic variables that affect crop health. By applying machine learning to data from the ground, the sky, and space, the company generates – among other tools – yield models to provide in-season visibility into crop performance.

Curious about how we generated this final South American report of year? Watch our webinar below.

 

Closer to home Indigo is monitoring the extent of COVID-19 in the Corn Belt. We have updated our series tracking how the disease has spread throughout the US’s main crop producing regions.

 

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