March Production Forecast

March 10, 2020. Today, Indigo updated its South American Corn and Soybean Production Report. The company’s corn and soybean production forecast in Brazil and Argentina is 6% and 7% lower, respectively, than market projections from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) and United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS). 

Indigo is forecasting 142 million metric tons (MMT) of corn and 164 MMT of soybeans. Those forecasts are 8 MMT and 12 MMT fewer for both corn and soybeans, respectively, than industry benchmarks.

Continued differences across Brazil. In Brazil, Indigo forecasts 98 MMT of corn and 114 MMT of soybeans, based on projected yields of 5.4 tons per hectare for corn and 3.1 tons per hectare for soybeans, as well as area planted estimates of 18M hectares and 36.8M hectares, respectively.

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After record corn and soybean production in 2019, Mato Grosso (pictured above in an image pulled from Indigo Atlas, a living map of the world’s food system) is on pace to outperform itself in 2020. Agriculture is this Brazilian state’s largest industry, with soybeans accounting for over 80% of its exports.

Production has remained variable across Brazilian states. Mato Grosso has seen an uptick in its soybean performance, with an increasing yield of 0.1 tons per hectare since Indigo’s last report (and continuing its record run); there has been no change in neighboring Mato Grosso do Sul, which neighbors Mato Grosso to the south; and Rio Grande do Sul has seen a slight deflation, down 0.1 tons per hectare. 

Weather impacts Argentinian crop. In Argentina, Indigo forecasts 44 MMT for corn and 50 MMT for soybeans, based on projected yields of 7.0 tons per hectare for corn and 2.9 tons per hectare for soybeans, with an estimated planted area of 6.3M hectares and 17.4M hectares, respectively.

Dry to start the season, and dry to end it: Argentina may have been spared in the intermediary months with adequate moisture and sufficient temperatures, but the past three weeks has seen excessive heat with little to no rain. Should this dryness continue, later planted soy and corn could be impacted in the country, as rain “makes the grain” for both corn and soy during the germination and pod-filling phases.

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Interested in learning more? Watch the webinar below, featuring Matt Beckwith, Director of GeoInnovation, and Nicholas Malizia, Director of Data Science for GeoInnovation.

 

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