June 2021 US Production Report

  • In the first United States production report of 2021, Indigo reveals yield, acres planted, and total production forecasts for corn and soybeans.
  • Indigo’s estimates for corn and soybeans are 5.0 and 0.9 bushels per acre (bu/ac) below estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
  • Dry conditions and hot temperatures impact the northern stretch of the Corn Belt, primarily Wisconsin, a county-by-county analysis shows.

June 10, 2021. When was the last time planting went this fast? Nearly nine years ago for corn, and 21 years for beans. This is an excellent first step in a season where crop prices have been on a meteoric rise, reaching never before seen heights after more than a decade of all too familiar lows. “What the American grower needs to focus on more than anything right now is growing the biggest crop they possibly can, full stop, period, end of story,” says Thad England, a grain marketing specialist based out of western Iowa, who cites the “clockwork” export demand as reason to think basis will only continue to surge. 

Given how hot the crop market is, analyst eyes are starting to turn to end-of-season production. What total output can we expect for corn and beans, given yield trends and planted acreage estimates? Indigo’s first forecast of the year is 174.5 bu/ac for corn and 49.9 bu/ac for soybeans, which, combined with planted acreage estimates of 91.1 million acres for corn and 87.6 million acres for soybeans, would net out at 14.57 billion bushels of corn and 4.33 billions bushels for soybeans.

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These estimates do not yet incorporate remote sensing analysis, a hallmark of Indigo’s proprietary estimates released over the past three years. When the crop has fully emerged at the beginning of July, enough “ground signal” will be available to incorporate real-time crop health into our estimates. 

 

The northern portion of the Corn Belt is seeing up to a seven degree surge in temperatures compared to last year. The crop will need either a break in the heat or more rainfall to keep from disrupting its development during the pivotal emergence phase. For a deeper look at this past month’s weather conditions, access the PDF report above.

 

What is going on with stocks-to-use? We are seeing United States corn and soybean stocks-to-use for this crop season, according to the latest numbers released by the USDA, reach their lowest levels in the past 10 years. Corn exports from Brazil were cut by two million metric tons, while corn exports from the United States were revised up two million metric tons. Expect this extreme tightness in supply and demand to continue driving up crop prices as the season progresses. 

Interested in learning more? Stay tuned for next month’s market report, where these estimates will be updated, and the upcoming weather conditions will be analyzed.

 

 

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