January Production Forecast 2020

January 10, 2020. Today, Indigo announced its initial South American Corn and Soybean Production Report for the the 2019/20 season, forecasting end of season production, yield, and planted area for Brazil and Argentina. Due to a weaker than average crop canopy, and uneven weather across both countries, Indigo’s forecast is slightly below expectations – with 12M fewer tons of corn and 19M fewer tons of soybeans than market consensus.

In Brazil, Indigo forecasts 95M tons of corn and 110M tons of soybean production, based on projected yields of 5.4 tons per hectare and 3.0 tons per hectare in combination with Conab’s area planted estimates of 17.5M hectares and 36.8M hectares, respectively. In Argentina, Indigo forecasts 42M tons of corn and 46M tons of soybean production, based on projected yields of 6.8 and 2.6 metric tons per hectare in combination with the USDA FAS’s area planted estimates of 6.1M hectares and 17.5M hectares, respectively.

Brazil improves after a slow start. The world’s third largest producer of corn and second largest producer of soybeans had a slow start to the growing season, with dry conditions prominent through the middle of October – the prime planting period. Sporadic and insufficient rainfall gave way to adequate precipitation; planting has now caught up to the five year average, raising crop health with it. 

Today, In the state of Mato Grosso – which produces the most soybeans in the country – yields are in line with the three-year average. Other states in the northeast and south of Brazil are a bit lower, after experiencing the brunt of the drought. 

Argentina, strong out the gate, starts to slow. At the same time, Argentina, the world’s fourth largest producer of corn and third largest producer of soybeans, had a solid start to the season, but dried out in November and December. Only in the past week has adequate rainfall resumed, reducing the dry areas within the country. This means early planted corn and soybeans could experience a dip in production, while later planted corn could see a small yield bump – if the beneficial rains are to continue.  As crops absorb the additional moisture and improve in condition, yield forecasts are likely to also improve.

What can you expect? Indigo will continue updating its forecast as the season in South America progresses, returning on February 11th with another production report before the USDA’s monthly WASDE release.

Read the Report

 

Interested in learning more? Watch this webinar below. 

 

Indigo's GeoInnovation team recently published a new report containing our unique perspective into agricultural production across Brazil and Argentina. This month, two of our resident GeoInnovation experts Matt Beckwith and Nicholas Malizia break down the contents of this report and the underlying Atlas technology behind it.

Disclaimer:
This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person.

This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and Indigo Ag. Inc. (“Indigo”) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any commodity or commodity derivative to any person in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It is for the general information of clients of Indigo. It doesn’t constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients.

In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable though its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither Indigo, nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipients of this material should rely on their own due diligence and receive their own professional advice.

Price and value of the commodity referred to in this material may go up or down. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Certain transactions including those involving commodity derivatives involve substantial risk and are not suitable for everyone. The report is based on information from different sources some proprietary and some public. Opinions expressed are Indigo’s current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Readers of this report are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Our proprietary trading may make trading decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and employees worldwide may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the commodities mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities for compensation or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Indigo’s prior written consent.