April 2021 Market Report

  • In Argentina, corn and soybeans forecasts are now at 6.6 metric tons per hectare (mt/ha) and 2.8 mt/ha, decreasing 0.1 mt/ha since last month for corn and staying steady in beans.
  • In Brazil, corn and soybean forecasts are now 5.8 mt/ha and 3.4 mt/ha, decreasing 0.1 mt/ha since last month for corn and staying steady in beans.
  • Included in this report is a review of last week’s prospective planting report from the USDA, which came in below expectations.
April 8, 2021. Since last month, Indigo’s production forecasts for both Argentine and Brazilian corn have changed only slightly, while the countries’ soybean outlooks have both stayed the same. 

Safrinha, or Brazil’s second corn crop that is planted after its soybean harvest, continues to be the bigger story. It makes up roughly 76% of Brazil’s corn output in a year, but due to wet weather to start the season in 2020, safrinha planting this year has been one of the latest on record – and is now facing a dry stretch of weather with an already narrow window for emergence and pollination.

“Dryer weather this time of the year is typical in central Brazil,” says Michael Cordonnier, an agricultural consultant providing up-to-date information about soybean and corn production in both North and South America. “What is not typical is how late the safrinha corn has been planted. Some farmers are still trying to finish planting their safrinha corn and if any of the corn needs to be replanted due to poor emergence, there may not be enough soil moisture for germination.”

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Acres absent from USDA report? The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprised the market in their prospective planting report, which was released at the end of March. Corn and soybean acres came in 4.5M acres below expectations, while wheat acres were 1.4M acres above expectations. The USDA’s next report detailing acreage will be released at the end of June; until then, pulses on planting progress will be taken constantly.

Indigo’s expectations for total corn and soybean acres, like the rest of the market, were higher than the USDA report. Still, Indigo’s ratio for corn-to-soybean acres was in line with the ratio put forward by the USDA; our split leaned 50.6% for corn, while the USDA’s split leaned 51% for corn.

Interested in learning more? Watch the webinar below, featuring a deep dive on South American production from analysts and scientists on our GeoInnovation team.

 

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