April 2020 Production Forecast

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April 9, 2020.Today, Indigo updated its South American Corn and Soybean Production Report. Overall, projected corn production decreased 4% over the past month – down 4 million metric tons (MMT) in Brazil and 2 MMT in Argentina – and soybean production decreased 2% – up 1 MMT in Brazil and down 4 MMT in Argentina.

Indigo is forecasting 136 MMT of corn and 161 MMT of soybeans. Those forecasts are both 9% fewer for corn and soybeans than industry benchmarks. Area planted estimates have not changed since March, while yield projections for corn are 17% and 7% lower and soybeans are 14% and 8% lower than the USDA’s estimate for Argentina and CONAB’s estimate for Brazil, respectively.

The big question remaining is what will be the final production totals. “Last week the Bolsa de Buenos Aires brought their soybean projection down to near Indigo. Several Brazilian forecasters have also reduced estimates, backing off projections of record harvest and coming closer to Indigo. CONAB came down 2 million metric tons earlier today,” said Matt Beckwith, head of Indigo’s forecasting efforts.

Emergence of second-crop corn in Brazil. Brazil’s major corn harvest accounting for more than 75% of the area is corn-planted-after-soy, known as safrinha. The safrinha crop is typically planted between January and February; however, this year it was delayed with many fields still being planted in mid-March. This crop has moved into the flowering and grain-filling stages of its lifecycle – and is now visible to remote sensing instruments, such as satellites.

AprilAtlasReport_hero_web_2020In Brazilian state of Parana – where about 15% of the entire economy is based around agriculture – farmers are leaning into the safrinha corn crop again this season, as Indigo projects it to account for 10.1 MMT of the projected 13.2 MMT total.

Interested in learning more? Watch the webinar below, featuring Matt Beckwith and Nicholas Malizia, Director of Data Science for GeoInnovation.

 

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